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2026 membership economics · the visit that never landed

The 2026 Shoulder-Season Trap: Sold Memberships, Missed Visits, Quiet Churn

Shops repriced maintenance agreements this year against higher technician wages and truck cost. The failure mode did not change: a tune-up sold in July is still unscheduled in October, and the renewal feels like the customer paid for nothing.

  1. 01Peak-season sales still outrun shoulder-season capacity. The agreement is real. The visit is not on a board.
  2. 02A recurring job in the FSM is not a membership roster. It cannot tell you spring completion %.
  3. 03Churn at renewal is usually a fulfillment number wearing a sales costume.

Draws on 2026 operator writing about service-agreement growth and maintenance-visit scheduling, plus the long-running pattern of prepaid tune-ups displaced by demand calls. Not a survey. Not legal advice.

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